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Gold price defined by many factors
Of course, there are many reasons which dictate the price of gold.....the value of the US dollar itself, being a major one! Fear about the safety of banks and the rapidly dropping stock markets entice people to invest in gold!
Falling property prices around the world are another reason for the flight into gold.
The USA has seen huge drops in house prices. The UK has already seen a 14 per cent drop, with a minimum fall of a FURTHER 15 per cent being forecast on the BBC News today, October 28th 2008.
However, no-one actually knows at this date how much the average UK house price will fall over the next 2 or 3 years. My guess is 25 to 30 per cent, especially in the areas of greater unemployment.
Unfortunately, millions of people, especially young families, who have been sucked into borrowing 6 or 7 times their salaries by slick Real Estate and mortgage salesmen.........who have all earned fat COMMISSIONS by talking house prices up ........will now find themselves in severe negative equity, with some of their homes ending up £50000 to £80000 less than they paid for them.
Many homes will be repossessed, especially if people lose their jobs in a recession. Greater stress will also unfortunately lead to broken marriages and increase property sales and reducing prices.
Banks around the world have lent money on greatly over-inflated property prices on a massive global scale since about 2002, which is why many of them are now in dire straits, and having to be bailed out by their own countries' taxpayers, through their governments. The assets of the banks depend on over-valued property!!
The situation will be greatly exacerbated as the world economy enters a downturn and thousands of jobs are lost in all sorts of sectors.
The financial sector, which has been doing very well for over a decade, is going to shed thousands of jobs , as is the construction sector. Many building companies in the UK cannot afford to finish massive housing projects because the value of the homes they are building will be cut drastically.
Alarm bells should also be ringing in the Arabian Gulf area, where a phenomenal number of expensive properties are due for completion over the next five years. The market could well become over-supplied, whilst the number of potential wealthy buyers in the west become much poorer, or even lose their jobs.
The amount of construction being undertaken in Dubai and Abu Dhabi is phenomenal. The finished properties will all require wealthy buyers. Having said that, there will most certainly be a flood of westerners wanting well-paid work in Dubai.
The question is .......can they afford the properties?
Will the Dubai economy keep on booming in a global recession?
The downturn will also hit the expected tourism boom to Dubai and the rest of the UAE. If people in the west face recession and belt-tightening, how can they afford long flights and expensive holidays?
Many people, globally, have been badly shaken during the Autumn of 2008, as they have found out that many well-known, big-name banks were in deep trouble.
Hence, gold is becoming popular as being the ancient and traditional safe haven in such times of crisis. This international demand will put a bottom in the gold price, even though there could be sharp fluctuations as well.
Just consider the facts!
Property .......DOWN!! Shares ......DOWN!! Several banks ........DOWN!!
So many people are going to put their trust in precious metals, and GOLD is the leading precious metal!!
Therefore, gold is a pretty safe haven in these harsh economic times.
However, the TIMING must be right. Gold prices fluctuate, so the time to buy is when the price dips from previous peaks.
Nothing keep going up without drops along the way.
That judgment can only be made by the buyer.
All life involves risk, because life itself is a gamble.
As the popular song, "The Gambler", goes......." You've got to know when to hold them .......and know when to fold them .........'til the dealing's done!!!"
TIMING is the key factor in all investments!! Good luck!!
Have you seen our Dubai Gold Souk page? That may be of help.